ALL THE PRESIDENT'S MEN

Will SBY end up like Nixon? "Impeach SBY," one reader of Kompas.com campaigned. "This is the New Order Part II," another reader commented. Others tend to be sarcastic. "This is a revenge because KPK prosecuted the father-in-law of his son...", "This is a systematic action to kill KPK..."

"He let this from happening so his cronies could corrupt absolutely, following his teacher, Soeharto. Cikeas Dynasty." "Who asked you to vote for SBY?" others commented. These hate posts are reflection of how upset people are on SBY and his men.

Main targets of public criticism are Bambang Hendarso Danuri (Police Chief), Susno Duadji (head of criminal investigation unit), Hendarman Supandji (Attorney General), Abdul Hakim Ritonga (deputy AG), and Djoko Suyanto (coordinating minister for politic, security, law, and human rights). They are all the president's men.

Police and AGO have widely been considered responsible in what popularly believed as criminalization of Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK).

Watergate scandal implicated Nixon, which led to his downfall, mainly because his men masterminded the plot against Democratic Party. Nixon is the ultimate beneficiary owner of their actions. The question in the KPK fiasco is of course whether SBY could be considered benefited from the plot against KPK leaders.

It is true that SBY made "strange" statements. He, for example, once said "KPK has grown into an overly powerful institution." He also expressed "concern"about KPK's wiretapping thing. But we can't answer the question based on his statements, including the recent controversial tapped conversation which mentioned SBY.

Bibit and Chandra are prosecuted based on "statements" from former KPK chairman Antasari Azhar (detained in multiple cases) that he "heard" the flow of Rp6.7 billion funds to KPK leaders. 

Police then named Bibit and Chandra suspects in "bribery" case. But when they failed to get convincing evidence, they moved to different allegation: abuse of power.

With three KPK leaders named suspects, president SBY then issued government regulation in lieu of law to install three provisional leaders for KPK. The main reason was because KPK needs at least three leaders to make crucial decisions.

But on Thursday, October 29, Constitutional Court dropped "a bomb" with its verdict where Bibit and Chandra can't be suspended.

Interestingly SBY said "this is just a case, like others," while public, including Constitutional Court, believe "this is an extraordinary case."

But of course SBY wants to be perceived as a president who upholds the law when he said "I don't want to intervene the investigation." But he seems to miss is law without the sense of justice is meaningless. He is trapped in a formal process of law framed by police and AGO or men around him. 

Everybody shared his view on the importance to honor any formal legal process. But they felt something the president might not. Rationale built by police to detain Bibit and Chandra is not shared by most people. 

When police said Bibit and Chandra made too many press statement which affected investigation, and as a result they should be detained, is horrible from human rights perspective. Under the law, everybody, even if he or she is convicted reserved the right to talk.

He might wants to be perceived of "not taking sides". But his inaction is considered an endorsement to police, an indirect support to police, so he is taking sides. Unfortunately, people have completely different view about police. SBY seems trusts on police so much while most people doubt and cynical.

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New Ministers, More Promises

Reading newspapers this time around, we would feel like we're in the middle of election campaign season. New ministers in SBY-Boediono cabinet were competing to publish their promises. 

ICT Minister Tifatul Sembiring promises "green Base Transceiver Station" where the telco BTS will source their electricity from biogas derived from cow manure. Education minister Muhammad Nuh promises cheap books, while agriculture minister Suswono promised self-sufficiency in corn and sugar.

Energy Minister Darwin Zahedy Saleh pledged to launch a bureaucratic reform and promote alternative energy, while environmental affairs minister will campaign for stopping mining license within forest area.

Endang Rahayu Sedyaningsih, health minister, pledged no more cooperation with US Naval Medical Research Unit (Namru). 

Fishery and maritime affairs minister Fadel Muhammad promised fishermen's prosperity, while law and human rights minister Patrialis Akbar wants to make his ministry a favorite. Even trade minister Mari Pangestu, one of few ministers from SBY-Kalla administration, promised for online licensing next year.

Coordinating minister for the economy Hatta Rajasa made the most, even though we have heard similar promises in the past five years, like boost the real sector, create more jobs, accelerate infrastructure development, improve electricity supply, reform the bureaucracy, higher economic growth (up to 8%), etc.

Their boss, President SBY, announced three slogans in the first cabinet meeting: "Change and Continuity", "De-bottlenecking, Acceleration, and Enhancement", and "Unity, Together We Can."

We might get more promises and slogans in the coming days, weeks, months, and years until we finally enter the "real election campaign" season. 

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Embezzling US$25 Million, 26 months jail ONLY!

There is a general principle in stealing here: Steal BIG, you will be punished LIGHTER or even a FREEDOM!

Herman Ramli, accused of embezzling investors' money of about US$25 million, has been sentenced 26 months jail. He allegedly embezzled funds from thousands of investors at the brokerage firm he owned, PT Sarijaya Permana Sekuritas.

The Capital Market Supervisory Agency (Bapepam) could only complain about the light sentence. "That's just too light, no shock therapy here," Fuad Rahmany, Bapepam chairman said.

Under the law, maximum sentence for such kind of crime is 15 years prison. So, how someone can get two years and two months (probably will be discounted with 10 months plus bonuses for "good attitude")?   

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Wanna be minister? Try public rally!

Days of public rally in Maluku to protest no Maluku guy in SBY-Boediono cabinet turned out to be a big success. SBY promised to give one seat to someone from Maluku. Flores, Timor, Indian may follow!

"Not very long, there will be someone from Maluku in a strategic post in the administration," President SBY said today.

Media reported yesterday that thousands of youngsters staged public rallies in Ambon, Maluku province. They came from various organizations (PKMRI, HMI, GMNI, etc) to protest SBY's cabinet composition where no one from Maluku in the new cabinet.

Earlier on Tuesday, leaders of youth organization KNPI Maluku staged public rally at Maluku DPRD (local house of representatives) to protest the cabinet selection.

Tempo Interaktif had a comprehensive report about the rallies. Well, no Flores nor Timor guy in the cabinet. Should they stage public rallies, will the president enlarge the cabinet again?

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Sad for Nila, a "crisis" for SBY

She was crying when she's informed that she can't be the health minister. Hundreds of well-arranged congratulation flowers have been arrived at her residence. She then asked housemaid to take the flowers away. 

Nila Djuwita Moeloek had been widely mentioned as candidate for health minister. She is a professor, an ophthalmologist, and one of few people invited to a discussion with visiting US President George W. Bush few years back in Bogor, West Java. 

Nila is the wife of former health minister Farid Anfasa Moeloek, an anti-smoking spokesperson. Farid once said government shall issue a regulation to ban smoking because potential losses to the State is estimated at Rp325 trillion per annum, while contribution from tobacco excise is about Rp50 trillion per annum. 

Rumors quickly spreading that Nila failed a "psychological test". Nila confirmed that according to the test, she can't handle working under stress. Interestingly, some reports pointed to four other candidates of failed medical test (two others for psychological test, one for heart, and the other one for hepatitis C). 

"But why Nila is the only one replaced," Ribka Tjiptaning, chairperson of the House Commission IX (health affairs), a politician from PDI-P, questioned.

Ribka doesn't believe in the medical test behind the decision to replace Nila with Endang Rahayu Sedyaningsih. The steamy allegation is that SBY was "under pressures" to replace Nila, from both local (cigarette companies) and international lobbies. Endang is considered a "good friend" of US government program Naval Medical Research Unit (Namru) 2.

Advisory board of Indonesian Doctors Association (IDI) doesn't believe Nila can't stand stress because as ophthalmologist, she is used to work under high stress. "From medical point of view, Nila is fit and healthy. But of course it has nothing to do with the political "fit and proper" test result. May be she is not fit "under political pressures"?" Hasbullah Thabrani, dean of Medical School at University of Indonesia commented cynically.

Political observers, as usual, also fired criticism towards SBY's decision. But SBY defended his decision this morning saying "in the selection process, she (Nila) is superb, but in one or two spots, I think won't be wise for me to push her in a department."    

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Paedophilia & minister candidate

So, one of SBY-Boediono's minister candidates once reportedly detained by Cambodian police in July 2005 with paedophilia allegation. 

Christian Guth, legal advisor for Cambodia foreign affairs ministry, told VivaNews today that two Indonesian legislators were detained by Cambodian police in July 2005. They were in Cambodia to attend the Asean Parliamentary Organization (AIPO) meeting from July 20 to 24, 2005. But Detik.com quoted Guth saying the legislators were released on US$20,000 bail.

Others said the legislators were only "victims" of "blackmail". "Because if that was true, why the guy managed to attend 2006 AIPO meeting in Manila?"

Guth declined to disclose the name of the legislators. If it's true that one of them is the list of minister candidates, he might be the one identified with initial S (based on database of Indonesian delegation at the AIPO). But looks like SBY-Boediono already "clarified" the issue. Looks like the suspected name has been confirmed a new minister.

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5 Minister candidates failed medical test?

Five minister candidates for SBY-Boediono reportedly failed medical test. One for heart problem, three failed psychological test, and one has hepatitis C.

"DK failed due to heart problem, while ML, MA, and NDM failed psychological test, while PY reportedly has Hepatitis C," someone who claimed got information about the medical test on 36 minister candidates said. "But all of them finally classified "fit" for the ministerial job, even though three were identified not be able to work under pressures," the source further said. 

Detik.com speculated that Nila Djuwita Moeloek, candidate for health minister, failed medical test because of "old age". The online publication then speculated on new candidate for health minister identified as Dr Endang Sedyaningsih.

Meanwhile Kompas.com reported that four minister candidates---NDM, MA, SU, and SM---failed medical test.

But Hatta Rajasa, state secretary minister and candidate for coordinating minister for the economy, dismissed the speculations about five candidates. Hatta said "that's not true. All candidates passed the test."

Others busy to speculate that the medical test could be used by certain groups to "block" someone in a particular post. 

Whoever will replace Siti Fadilah Supari has to deal with her October 16 letter (No. 919/Menkes/X/2009) to US government about the termination of cooperation with Naval Medical Research Unit 2 (Namru). Fadilah cc-ed the letter to foreign affairs, defense, coordinating minister for people's welfare, and state secretary ministers. 

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Automotive sales drops 27%

New car sales dropped 27% last month on long Lebaran holidays. Toyota maintained its domination in the market.

Car sales for September reached 35,000 - 36,000 units, where Toyota sold 14,400 cars, declined 21.7% from the previous month. Overall, according to Gaikindo statistics, car market declined 28% to 335,334 units for the first nine months of 2009. The automotive business association predicts a 22% to 24% market decline this year. 

Overall, Toyota controlled 38.4% market share in Jan-Aug 2009 with 115,187 units, followed by Daihatsu (47,583 units), Mitsubishi (37,200), Suzuki (28725), and Honda (23,426).

Meanwhile, motorcycle sales dropped 30% last month, also due to the long holidays. Motorcycle sales reached its record high of 626,478 units in August, even higher than August 2008. Total motorcycle sales in Jan-Aug 2009 is 3.718 million units, closer to the industry's target of 5 million units this year.

Astra International is the biggest player in both cars (Toyota, Daihatsu etc) and motorcycles (Honda). Astra's stock price has surged 210% this year to Rp32800.

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Wall Street retreats, IDX?

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) lost 2.09% yesterday on weak manufacturing data. Asian stock markets opened significantly lower this morning, led by Nikkei's fall of 2.1%. How about IDX composite?

Straits opened lower by 2% this morning, while Australia's All Ordinaries already lost 1.84%. Footsie conceded 1.68% yesterday, while Nasdaq lost 3.06%. Commodities led the fall of stocks worldwide. Xstrata, the world's largest thermal coal exporter, lost 5.47% in London yesterday, while BHP dropped 2.8% this morning in Sidney, Australia. Straits Asia, which controls coal concessions in Kalimantan, opened substantially lower by 2.87% in SGX this morning.

Oil and gas stocks mainly ended lower. Total lost 3% in Paris, while Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Shell conceded 2% on average in NYSE.

Metals also suffered. Freeport McMoRan dropped 4.7% in NYSE, while Newmont lost 3.7%. Teck Resources also dropped 5.3%, while Fox Resources, Mincor, and Minara lost 5.9%, 5.7%, and 3.3% respectively in Australia this morning.

Plantation stocks opened lower in SGX this morning, with Wilmar lost another 2.9%, while Indofood Agri, Golden Agri, First Resources, and Kencana Agri---all with production assets in Indonesia---declined 2% on average.

IDX is the best performer this year with 83% gain, higher than India's BSE (78%) or Shanghai (53%). Shanghai lost grounds substantially in recent months on tight money policy. It is natural to see correction at IDX, which is traded 5% below its peak last year.

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