President 2009 Hypothetical Election

My friend Tommy, a prominent political journalist, believes the presidential election in 2009 will be the race of four candidates: SBY, JK (Jusuf Kalla), AR (Amien Rais), and MS (Megawati). How about Wiranto & Sutiyoso who are establishing new political parties, inspired by SBY's Partai Demokrat in 2004?

"If a hypothetical election was held today, SBY would lost the battle. I don't think he has enough energy for 2009. He looks happy to have the chance to be the president and that's it. But if he runs, which I'm sure he will, SBY could still get enough votes to pass the first round," he concluded.
Wait a minute! Isn't SBY considered successful in eradicating corruption?
"On the surface, yes! But people at the grass root level won't buy that anymore. Besides, he must have created a lot more enemies in the last few years. They'll strike back at SBY. He also failed to impress Islamic groups. Look at his statement about Iraq," Tommy said.
But the the prosecution of some high-level officers have created psychological fears and it's good?
"So far, from PR point of view, it's partially true. But you can't be considered success when you stop at prosecutions and you only prosecute your foes or what popularly known as selective cutting."
How about SBY's Partai Demokrat?
"The party has been torn apart. At the central board, the split has been obvious. Even the party's founding member Sys NS proclaimed a new party. The party is bussy with local election projects," he added.
"It's quite clear now that JK will run for presidency. But he wouldn't pass the first round," Martin, another prominent journalist said.
"But JK is considered strong enough to grab most of the votes outside Java," I asked.
"Well, look at the result of direct gubernatorial elections outside Java. PDI-P won in North Sulawesi, Central Kalimantan, and two provinces in Papua. In that case, JK & Megawati could share outside Java," Abraham, a political observer answered.
Abraham also mentioned about two major win for PDI-P, North Sumatra & Lampung. In the later, PDI-P's Sjahroedin Pagaralam-Syamsurya Ryacudu (younger brother of former Army Chief of Staff Gen Ryamizard Ryacudu---Megawati's key ally) had just won almost three-year battle against Golkar's Thabrani.
"And if Megawati could get Akbar Tanjung as her running mate, they could easily take Sumatra. Tanjung is also acceptable for Moslem voters. Those who supported SBY in 2004 will easily move to support Akbar," Abraham added.
But why do you think that JK won't pass the first round?
"Because Golkar already splitted and Tanjung loyalists are working hard to block JK, especially because JK's recent statement that insulting Tanjung's camp. Look at Tanjung's statement on SBY's newly established team. He said it's the president's sole right to establish such team. The statement actually an attack to JK who opposed the team," Abraham said.
So, how do you explain Gamawan Fauzi's win in West Sumatra? Gamawan was promoted by PDI-P. Can we assume that Megawati could win West Sumatra while JK's wife is a native West Sumatra (from Tanah Datar regency) and SBY has been named Datuk with Irman Gusman (DPD member) as the promoter (in fact JK's son has also been named Datuk)?
"Well, West Sumatra is different game. Gamawan won not because of PDI-P, but his personality as clean figure. It's just a coincidence. If Amien run, he might still win there as shown in 2004," Abraham argued.
"But Tommy, don't you think that Amien Rais is already the past. He failed in the first round in 2004," I asked.
"Well, Amien is playing Evo Morales personality at the moment. I think he's quite smart to use the nationalism sentiment to attract 'nationalist' voters," Tommy argued.
"But do you think that voters would buy the radical nationalistic campaign?"
"I'm not saying Amien would win the election. But looking at his movement in the last few months, it's quite clear that he still has the ambition to run for 2009," Tommy said.
Martin, long-time observer of local politics, jump in the discussion. "We have to see the more interesting local elections in Banten and Jakarta. Then we could get better picture about voters in densely populated areas in Java," he said.
Who do you think will win in Banten?
"I think Atut from Golkar-PDI-P will win," Martin said.
And who do you thin will win Jakarta?
"I think if PDI-P endorse Agum Gumelar, he could win. But Fauzi Bowo is the strongest contender."
But how about PKS candidate Mr Adang Darajatun?
"He has money. But for God sake I don't understand why PKS endorse him? If PKS believes it has the largest supporters in the city, why don't promote Tifatul or Hidayat Nur Wahid?"
Well, you can't say Banten & Jakarta represent the whole Java because we have West Java, Central Java, and East Java with different voters character.
"I think SBY & Megawati could still get the bigger slice of voters in those most populous areas," Martin said.
Rahmon, an international politic analyst, entered the discussion. "You have to look at the possible turn around in US politics as well. You know from the history that US plays important role in Indonesia's leadership changes," he said.
So, in that case, US will lean to SBY?
"At the moment, yes. But if Democrat win the 2008 election, things will change accordingly," he said.
The discussion stopped because I had diarhea. We promised to continue the discussion next week!

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