Wednesday, May 13, 2009

SBY-Boediono: An Anti-Climax?

Rumors swirling around the political elites this afternoon that incumbent president SBY has decided to choose economist Boediono as his running mate with huge concession to PDI-P in terms of cabinet posts. Is it going to be an anti-climax of the presidential race?


In an effort to prevent from being labelled as pro-Islam politics, president SBY has reportedly offered nine ministerial posts to PDI-P plus the speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) for Taufik Kiemas, husband of former president Megawati Soekarnoputri. 

Under the deal, brokered by Hatta Radjasa (state secretary minister), who is also tipped as VP candidate for SBY, PDI-P will join the Demokrat Party-led coalition of nationalists and Islamic parties. "Initially SBY offered seven cabinet posts, but PDI-P asked for nine posts and SBY accepted them," one senior politician told yosefardi.com this evening.

Boediono is acceptable to PDI-P because he was Megawati's finance minister. Boediono is reportedly acceptable to other coalition members (PKS, PAN, PPP, and PKB).

This is a very quick development in Indonesian politics in recent weeks. Under such scenario, Golkar could be the main opposition party. "SBY thought it would be too dangerous to have both Golkar and PDI-P as opposition in the parliament. He is worried about hostilities from DPR," another politician said.

With PDI-P as coalition member, SBY could secure at least 75% seats in the House of Representatives (DPR). Looks like PDI-P has limited choice at the moment because they failed to secure support from Gerindra Party to issue one ticket for Megawati in the presidential race. 

"Without Gerindra, Megawati can't enter the race. That would be a big humiliation for her and PDI-P. That's why the party might take SBY's offer and claim Boediono as PDI-P's cadre," another politician commented.

Well, SBY-Boediono supported by PDI-P and Islamic parties would make the presidential race a head-to-head with Kalla-Wiranto. "We might need half round to give SBY a landslide victory. This is an anti-climax of the race we initially thought would be tough and interesting," the politician continued. 

Some PDI-P cadres staged a rally to protest the party's plan to join SBY's coalition today. They prefer to have PDI-P as opposition in the DPR. 

How other parties responded to the SBY-Boediono rumor?

PKB said "no problem." PKS, according to Anis Matta, secretary general of the party, said SBY's person had informed PKS that Boediono will be the VP candidate. "We're disturbed with the rumor about Boediono," Matta said while signaling possible exit for the party from SBY coalition. PPP and PAN might also pull out from SBY's coalition.

Ahmad Mubarok, deputy chairman of Demokrat Party quickly dismissed the speculation about SBY-Boediono saying "no decision yet. The decision will be made one day before the declaration."

As for PDI-P, the party executives met Gerindra Party executives tonight. Sources said Prabowo promised to support Megawati's presidential bid, but he won't take the VP candidacy for Megawati. 

Would be interesting to see whether PKS, PPP, and PAN would give their support to Prabowo or Kalla-Wiranto. "May be the race is still alive," one politician at Islamic party said.

How about SBY-Hatta Radjasa with PDI-P support? "Well, PDI-P is split between supporting Boediono and Hatta Radjasa," another politician said.

SO, may be it's not an anti-climax yet. Let's see what happens in the next few hours.


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