Coalitions without Visions

Demokrat Party and President SBY insisted that Boediono is the best choice for VP candidate. PKS, PAN, PPP threatens to leave Demokrat-led coalition. Megawati's PDI-P might ink a coalition with Prabowo Subianto's Gerindra for the sake of "good race". Kalla's Golkar and Wiranto's Hanura are welcoming parties leaving SBY. Three-way race is wide open. But can they move to the next level, talking about visions? 

SBY-Boediono

- The decision might show a high self confidence in SBY that he could win the election regardless of his choice of running mate. 

- SBY opts for personal relationship with his VP than coalition in the House of Representatives (DPR). Without PDI-P and Golkar in the coalition, SBY might face a strong opposition in DPR.

- SBY believes Java-non-Java typology is not an issue anymore among voters, especially those outside Java. 

- SBY believes Nationalist-Islam typology is not an issue anymore for voters. Boediono is considered a nationalist-secular like SBY.

- SBY opts not to feed a "lion" (VP from political party) which may kill Demokrat in 2014 when SBY can't enter the race anymore.

- Protest from PKS, PAN, and PPP might be settled with more seats for them in the next cabinet, especially if PDI-P will not join the coalition. Without better compensation, one or two would leave SBY and join other coalitions, including PKS plan to move to Kalla-Wiranto or PAN-PPP which may support Prabowo. But PAN and PPP might opt to stay if Prabowo decides to take VP post with Megawati instead.

Megawati-Prabowo

- This is going to be a confirmation that Megawati opts to save the party's integrity than short-term political gain, i.e. getting seven to nine cabinet posts if joins SBY. 

- They might loose the race, but the race would be more interesting than a two-way race between SBY-Boediono and Kalla-Wiranto.

- If they fail, PDI-P and Gerindra will become opposition in the parliament, something the country needs to check and balance a strong administration. 

Kalla-Wiranto

- They might be able to accommodate parties like PKS or PPP. 

- If they fail, some of Golkar leaders rejoin SBY's coalition, just like what's happened in 2004. There is a possibility that some Golkar cadres will be appointed ministers. 

- If there is a second round, Kalla-Wiranto supporters might be directed to vote for SBY's opponent in second round. If they enter the second round, Megawati-Prabowo fails, they might get additional support from Megawati-Prabowo voters.

- If both Kalla-Wiranto and Megawati-Prabowo fail in the election and that there is no second round, there are possibilities that some Golkar leaders rejoin Demokrat, leaving PDI-P, Gerindra, and Hanura as oppositions. 

Without Visions

So much energy has been spent in talking about who's who in the past few months, focused on the president and vice president. Once the issue settled, in the next two days when the final registration closed on May 16, the elites will start to talk about cabinet posts, i.e. who will get how much and which post. Discussion about that might alive until October 2009, leaving only few hours of serious discussion about what these leaders would and could do.

That's not surprising at all, especially because these political parties have been established without clear visions, platforms, and directions. These parties were established on weak ideological background. These parties were mainly fans club of their respective leaders. Demokrat Party is a fans club for SBY, PDI-P is a fans club for Megawati, Gerindra is a fans club for Prabowo Subianto, and Hanura for Wiranto.

All of them are busy with short-term political gains for their own fame and their respective fans. Once elected, they will start to think about how to win 2014. None of them would dare to lay foundations to solve our long-term problems and challenges. They will offer short-term remedies, which impossible to solve long-term issues of inequality, social-economic injustice, for example.

These coalitions are established for short-term political interest, not because they share the same visions. Unfortunately media, critics, and activists are all trapped in this short-term game. Coalitions without visions is just a body without soul. 

Limited dialectics and quality discussions about visions, and how will they implement. The coalition, especially the one established by Demokrat-SBY looks beautiful like rainbow, but weak in principles. Opposition is also established only to make themselves different from the ruling coalition.

All of them will promise pro-poor and pro-people economic policies. But they do nothing in narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor. In fact most policies post-Soeharto era only widens the gap. They will talk about 6%, 7% or 12% annual economic growth, but pay less attention on the quality of the growth, who's growing and who's left behind or even declining in terms of relative prosperity.

Haryanto Suharman & Yosef Ardi

READ MORE!!!