1.6billion for 30% KPC-Arutmin???????
Bloomberg reported today that Tata Group from India offers USD1.6 billion for 30% shares in Kaltim Prima Coal and Arutmin Indonesia. In December 2006, media reported far lower figure offered by Tata at USD1 billion. Is it possible that in less than three months Tata raised the value of KPC-Arutmin by 60%? Or this is just the game played to pump up the price of Bumi Resources shares?
"Can you believe it? Tata offers USD1.6 billion for 30% of KPC & Arutmin. Isn't that great?" a US-based investment banker sent a short message this morning.
"Are they lost their mind?" other US-based investment banker answered my question.
"You'd better be careful with the currency. Will they pay 1.6 billion US dollar or Singapore dollar or Rupee?" a European-based investment banker responded.
Well, Samin Tan's Renaissance Capital initial offer was USD3.25 billion for 100% or slightly less than USD1 billion for 30% of KPC-Arutmin. Renaissance then changed its mind and offered lower price (some say around USD2.5 billion) which led to the collapse of the deal in August 2006.
"Well, during Samin's process, Bumi share was Rp750 but now it's going up to Rp1,110 (up 3.66% today)," the supporter of Bumi said.
But Bumi have to spend more than USD100 million to pump up the price through shares buyback in the last few months.
"I don't believe that Tata would bid that much for KPC-Arutmin. Let's see whether the deal really closes at that price or Bumi would completely collapse after the humiliation last year," one analyst at local brokerage firm said.
So why only few people believe KPC-Arutmin really worth that much?
"Because the valuation is off. When Tata or anyone else really goes deep on due diligence, they will uncover a lot of problems that have destroyed the value," a banker at state-owned bank said.
"Credit Suisse is in the game and I could understand if they're trying to boost Bumi shares with this information," another equity strategist at European-based investment bank said.
Well, it's all speculative. Besides, the final bid for KPC-Arutmin divestment is still two weeks away (Feb 28) and adjustment would be made significantly like what Samin did. Tata, Mitsubishi, and others would quickly discount KPC & Arutmin once they realized the real figures. So, better be careful!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
READ MORE!!!
"Can you believe it? Tata offers USD1.6 billion for 30% of KPC & Arutmin. Isn't that great?" a US-based investment banker sent a short message this morning.
"Are they lost their mind?" other US-based investment banker answered my question.
"You'd better be careful with the currency. Will they pay 1.6 billion US dollar or Singapore dollar or Rupee?" a European-based investment banker responded.
Well, Samin Tan's Renaissance Capital initial offer was USD3.25 billion for 100% or slightly less than USD1 billion for 30% of KPC-Arutmin. Renaissance then changed its mind and offered lower price (some say around USD2.5 billion) which led to the collapse of the deal in August 2006.
"Well, during Samin's process, Bumi share was Rp750 but now it's going up to Rp1,110 (up 3.66% today)," the supporter of Bumi said.
But Bumi have to spend more than USD100 million to pump up the price through shares buyback in the last few months.
"I don't believe that Tata would bid that much for KPC-Arutmin. Let's see whether the deal really closes at that price or Bumi would completely collapse after the humiliation last year," one analyst at local brokerage firm said.
So why only few people believe KPC-Arutmin really worth that much?
"Because the valuation is off. When Tata or anyone else really goes deep on due diligence, they will uncover a lot of problems that have destroyed the value," a banker at state-owned bank said.
"Credit Suisse is in the game and I could understand if they're trying to boost Bumi shares with this information," another equity strategist at European-based investment bank said.
Well, it's all speculative. Besides, the final bid for KPC-Arutmin divestment is still two weeks away (Feb 28) and adjustment would be made significantly like what Samin did. Tata, Mitsubishi, and others would quickly discount KPC & Arutmin once they realized the real figures. So, better be careful!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
READ MORE!!!
posted by yosef at 1:54 PM
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