Opposition to Exxon, how strong?

Hours after state-owned oil and gas company PT Pertamina and US-giant ExxonMobil announced the deal on the operation of oil-and-gas-rich Cepu block (located in Bojonegoro and Blora regencies of East Java and Central Java provinces), opposition movement started to fire criticism and protests. The same old names, for sure, and the same old arguments.

Below are some of their statements:

- The new CEO of Pertamina Ari H Soemarno should resign or be fired for giving the operatorship of Cepu to Exxon.

- The deal was a welcome gift for the visiting US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice.

- The government was under heavy US pressure. US Vice President Dick Cheney once raised the issue of Cepu settlement to Indonesia president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in a Washington meeting last year.

- The deal could result in losses to the national interests.

- There is always the possibility that Exxon may understate the block's oil production while overstating its production costs, without Indonesia having any authority whatsoever to cross-check this, leaving Pertamina with almost nothing left after the production sharing contract ends.

- Government is giving away the nation's sovereignty.

- Government is telling public lies, pointing the decision as a mere business-to-business deal between Exxon and Pertamina.

For all of these, they waged a 'war' against Exxon (and US government) and Pertamina (and Indonesia government). What will they do?

- Make another statements

- Political maneuver in the House of Representative (DPR) to use the rights to investigate (hak angket) or other rights.

- Stage a protest, probably at the front of US Embassy or the places to be visited by Condi Rice or government offices.

This is not entirely new or something extraordinary. Back in 2003, when government sold majority shares in state-owned telecommunication company PT Indosat Tbk to Singapore government's company Temasek, the situation was even lot worse than this time around. Similar in political maneuvers and arguments (anti-foreigners, anti-capitalism, nationalism sentiment etc), but different in the scale of protest.

How strong the opposition to ExxonMobil?

Well, if the talking heads appeared in the media could be considered valid to make a political calculation, I would say this movement will end up like the one on rice import policy. Why?

Here is the list of the talking heads:

- Drajad Wibowo, member of House Commission XI from National Mandate Party (PAN).

- Tjatur Sapto Eddy, member of House Commission VII from Naitonal Mandate Party (PAN).

- Marwan Batubara, member of Regional Representative Council (DPD) representing Jakarta.

- Fadhil Hasan, economist from INDEF, a think-tank closely related to PAN.

- Ramson Siagiaan, member of House Commission VII from PDI-P.

- Sonny Keraf, member of House Commission VII from PDI-P

- Rama Pratama, from PKS.

- Sri Edi Swasono, lecturer from University of Indonesia, allegedly the founder of Bojonegoro Institute (in competition with Winners Center) to grab community development program in the area.

- Kwik Kian Gie, former coordinating minister for the economy, PDI-P.

PDI-P, PKS, and PAN were the main sponsor for DPR's maneuver to investigate government's policy on rice import. But they failed to get full support from DPR in a voting. PAN was not solid in the voting and PDI-P and PKS coalition lost the battle. I don't see DPR is solid enough on every issues they raised. Even one single party can't agree on one big issue simply because most parties don't have strong ideology. PDI-P probably the most solid opposition party, even though sometimes half-hearted, but that's it.

Just like the opposition to divestment of Indosat, massive protests were staged on rice import policy. That's not even the case on this Cepu debacle. So, I would say this opposition is even weaker than the rice import and Indosat.

I believe in one thing, once they cut a deal with either new board of directors of Pertamina, government, or ExxonMobil, they'll stop. They will not get the checquered flag!

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